Projected BPM
10.7 → 8.6
-2.1 from 2025-26 to 2026-27.
Basketball Reference · 1976–2026
NBA Performance Trends
Follow one player from season-by-season performance to a probabilistic forecast of what comes next.
01 · Career arc
Box Plus/Minus across 3 recorded seasons.
Victor Wembanyama · BPM
2026-27 forecast10.7 → 8.6 BPM · 45% chance of holding steadyClick a data point to see its exact value and season. Fixed comparison scale: ages 18–42 and -10.0–15.0 BPM. The dashed line marks league average: 0. The dotted segment is the model’s 2026-27 projection.
02 · Model forecast · next season
Forecast for 2026-27
Outlook
Leans toward holding steady.
- Improving 21%
- Stable 45%
- Regressing 34%
Near career peak
11%
Chance current performance is within 0.5 BPM of the eventual smoothed peak.
What informed this estimate
- BPM change last season
- +4.2
- Minutes vs prior season
- +22%
- Below career-high BPM
- 0.0
- Three-season BPM trend
- +2.75 / season
- Age
- 22
The model uses only information available through 2025-26. It was evaluated with chronological season splits to reduce look-ahead leakage. Estimates are probabilities, not guarantees.