Projected BPM
5.4 → 2.6
-2.8 from 2025-26 to 2026-27.
Basketball Reference · 1976–2026
NBA Performance Trends
Follow one player from season-by-season performance to a probabilistic forecast of what comes next.
01 · Career arc
Box Plus/Minus across 15 recorded seasons.
Stephen Curry · BPM
2026-27 forecast5.4 → 2.6 BPM · 59% chance of a declineClick a data point to see its exact value and season. Fixed comparison scale: ages 18–42 and -10.0–15.0 BPM. The dashed line marks league average: 0. The dotted segment is the model’s 2026-27 projection.
02 · Model forecast · next season
Forecast for 2026-27
Outlook
Leans toward a decline.
- Improving 8%
- Stable 33%
- Regressing 59%
Near career peak
<1%
Chance current performance is within 0.5 BPM of the eventual smoothed peak.
No qualified season
29%
Estimated chance of not logging a qualified 2026-27 season.
What informed this estimate
- BPM change last season
- -0.9
- Minutes vs prior season
- -41%
- Below career-high BPM
- 6.5
- Three-season BPM trend
- +0.10 / season
The model uses only information available through 2025-26. It was evaluated with chronological season splits to reduce look-ahead leakage. Estimates are probabilities, not guarantees.