Projected BPM
9.3 → 7.6
-1.7 from 2025-26 to 2026-27.
Basketball Reference · 1976–2026
NBA Performance Trends
Follow one player from season-by-season performance to a probabilistic forecast of what comes next.
01 · Career arc
Box Plus/Minus across 8 recorded seasons.
Luka Dončić · BPM
2026-27 forecast9.3 → 7.6 BPM · 41% chance of a declineClick a data point to see its exact value and season. Fixed comparison scale: ages 18–42 and -10.0–15.0 BPM. The dashed line marks league average: 0. The dotted segment is the model’s 2026-27 projection.
02 · Model forecast · next season
Forecast for 2026-27
Outlook
Too close to call, with a decline slightly ahead.
- Improving 22%
- Stable 37%
- Regressing 41%
Near career peak
5%
Chance current performance is within 0.5 BPM of the eventual smoothed peak.
What informed this estimate
- BPM change last season
- +2.6
- Minutes vs prior season
- +29%
- Below career-high BPM
- 0.6
- Three-season BPM trend
- -0.30 / season
- Age
- 26
The model uses only information available through 2025-26. It was evaluated with chronological season splits to reduce look-ahead leakage. Estimates are probabilities, not guarantees.