Latest
3.5
BPM · 2025-26
Basketball Reference · 1976–2026
NBA Performance Trends
Follow one player from season-by-season performance to a probabilistic forecast of what comes next.
01 · Career arc
LeBron James · BPM
Box Plus/Minus across 23 recorded seasons.
Career high
13.2
Age 24 · 2008-09
Career span
23 seasons
Ages 19–41
LeBron James
Click a data point to pin its exact value and season on the graph.
Fixed comparison scale: ages 18–42 and -10.0–15.0 BPM. The dashed line marks league average: 0.
02 · Model forecast · next season
Forecast for 2026-27
Most likely trajectory
Regressing
46% probability
Improving24%
Stable30%
Regressing46%
Near career peak
0%
Probability current performance is within 0.5 BPM of the eventual smoothed peak.
Projected BPM change
-1.6
Expected change from 2025-26 to 2026-27.
What informed this estimate
- Estimated 35% chance of not logging a qualified season next year.
- BPM fell by -2.1 last qualified season.
- Minutes changed by -19% vs prior season.
- Current BPM is 9.7 below career high through this season.
- Three-season BPM slope is -1.50 per season.
The model uses only information available through 2025-26. It was evaluated with chronological season splits to reduce look-ahead leakage. Estimates are probabilities, not guarantees. For completed careers, this is a hypothetical next-season projection.
03 · Season log
Season-by-season record
Open the complete table for the selected statistic.
View 23 seasons
| Player | Age | Season | BPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | 19 | 2003-04 | 1.7 |
| LeBron James | 20 | 2004-05 | 8.6 |
| LeBron James | 21 | 2005-06 | 9.1 |
| LeBron James | 22 | 2006-07 | 8.1 |
| LeBron James | 23 | 2007-08 | 10.9 |
| LeBron James | 24 | 2008-09 | 13.2 |
| LeBron James | 25 | 2009-10 | 11.8 |
| LeBron James | 26 | 2010-11 | 8.1 |
| LeBron James | 27 | 2011-12 | 10.9 |
| LeBron James | 28 | 2012-13 | 11.7 |
| LeBron James | 29 | 2013-14 | 8.8 |
| LeBron James | 30 | 2014-15 | 7.1 |
| LeBron James | 31 | 2015-16 | 9.0 |
| LeBron James | 32 | 2016-17 | 7.6 |
| LeBron James | 33 | 2017-18 | 8.7 |
| LeBron James | 34 | 2018-19 | 8.0 |
| LeBron James | 35 | 2019-20 | 8.4 |
| LeBron James | 36 | 2020-21 | 8.1 |
| LeBron James | 37 | 2021-22 | 7.7 |
| LeBron James | 38 | 2022-23 | 6.1 |
| LeBron James | 39 | 2023-24 | 6.5 |
| LeBron James | 40 | 2024-25 | 5.6 |
| LeBron James | 41 | 2025-26 | 3.5 |